It's a Mug's Game #5
by Shane LeRoy(Other)
Posted on June 7, 2007, 8:17 AM
Shane: Last week was looking like a rough one for me by Saturday, as Zac Johnson had pulled out of the Memorial Championships with a throat injury, and Wales had ensured my Rugby double was sunk by taking a 31 point beating from the Wallabies. However, in the end it turned out to be a really good week for me. Mexico defeated Iran, Portugal did the job in Belgium, and Greece took care of Hungary at home to return £82.50 back from my £20 stake. Better still, Richard Sterne, the man I tipped to be about to win ďany week nowĒ delivered in spades at the Welsh Open, finishing like a train to pip Bradley Dredge by a shot on the last hole. This pocketed me £295 fantasy pounds (And a cool Ä590 in real life as Jamie can attest to!). If Lorena Ochoa hadnít somehow blown a 5 shot lead with 27 holes to go (And a 3 shot lead with 12 to go) to lose in a playoff on the LPGA tour it would have been the perfect Sunday.
No complaints though, as I made £377.50 back from my £100 stake last week.
Onto this week and I will start yet again with my strongest sport for tipping and that is Golf. The European Tour is short of top talent this week with most players either playing Stateside or taking the week off to tune their games for next weekís US Open. Therefore, rather than try and pick from a few well known players at short odds, Iím going to concentrate on the US Tour and the St Jude Championship. I backed David Toms 2 weeks ago and he flirted with a top 5 finish on Sunday before falling away on the back nine. Iím going back to him this week however due to his great record at this event. His last 5 attempts at this tournament have lead to finishes of 10th, 2nd 1st, 1st, and 4th. When you see that form, and you see odds of 20/1 with Boylesports, you have to take them
1st Bet: £10 EW on David Toms to win St. Jude Championship at 20/1
My second bet on the St. Jude Championship is on Adam Scott. He has been in pretty solid form as of late with a 5th and 6th place finish in his last two starts, to go with his win in the Houston Open the week before the Masterís. This course with its Bermuda grass greens is made for Scott and I would be surprised if he is not contending this week again. Iíll take 14/1 with Tote.
2nd Bet: £10 EW on Adam Scott to win St. Jude Championship at 14/1
Finally Iíll have a small bet on a top 10 finish. Bob Estes is a journeyman player who blows hot and cold on tour. However he has amassed 5 top 10 finishes at this event in the past including a Win, a second and a third. Odds of 28/5 with Betfair look too good to turn down for him to repeat the trick and finish in the top 10 this week
3rd Bet: £10 on Bob Estes to finish in top 10 at St. Jude Championships at 28/5.
Moving away from Golf, Iíll turn my attention to Formula one and the Canadian Grand Prix. Iím going to be boring and repeat my winning bet of 2 weeks ago and go for Fernando Alonso to win again, as he did two weeks ago and as he did in Canada last year. Odds of 9/4 with Paddy Power & Stan James look overpriced.
4th Bet: £20 on Fernando Alonso to win Canadian Grand Prix.
Turning to Cricket and the England Ė Comedy X1, I mean, West Indies Series. Seen as 2/5 on England is too skinny given English weather, Iím sticking to the top scorer market. Itís a straight choice between Kevin Pieterson and Alistair Cook for me, both of whom are bang on form. Iím going to plump for Cook simply because he is available at better odds and also because you get the feeling KP might get a bit bored of smashing the Windies excuse for a pace attack around.
5th Bet: £20 on Alistair Cook to be Englandís top run scorer at 9/2 (coral)
And thatís my piece logged for this week. Until next week, happy punting!
Here I am back for another weekís tipping on the back of another profit making week. Last week I was delighted to see that I managed to get 3 out of 3 horse racing tips including some winners at decent odds. Scorpion won at 12/1, Light Shift at 5/1 and Authorized cruised home at 5/6. With respective stakes of £4, £10 and £36 I got a total return of £178.
Itís worth saying at this point there is always some luck involved in gambling and anybody who believes otherwise can either see the future or is stupid. However it is a good feeling to turn a profit for 3 consecutive weeks. I hope with this weeks tips I can do something similar again.
Last week I tipped Mexico to win the CONACAF Gold Cup. I am still absolutely confident in that bet and my first this week will be on them to dominate Cuba in their first match of the tournament. The gulf in class between the two sides is self evident on paper and I think odds of 4/6 for Mexico to be winning at half time and full time are fairly generous. I will be staking £45 on this and it is the cornerstone for me getting to at least break even.
First Bet: £45 @ 4/6 on Mexico to be winning at Half Time and Full Time vs Cuba
Next up is the French Open tennis and we are right at the business end of the tournament for both the men and the women. Things look very much on course for Federer and Nadal to be facing each other in the final as most people expected. Although Federer managed to break Rafaís winning streak on clay recently I think Nadal will have enough to beat him and the latest odds I have seen are 8/15 for his victory.
I am going to double that up with Justine Henin to win her final against Ivanovic at odds of 2/5. When combined together you get odds of just over 11/10 and I will be staking £35 on it.
Second Bet: £35 on Nadal @ 8/15 and Henin @ 2/5 to win French Open
My final bet this week is going to be on Formula One. Last time in this sport I correctly predicted that Fernando Alonso would in the Monaco Grand Prix due to the incredibly tight turns around that street circuit. However now the show moves onto Canada I think the superior power of the Ferraris will come to the fore.
Massa has been much the better performer for the Italian team recently but I fancy Kimi Raikonnen to turn the tables on him and thrust himself back into the title picture. It is now or never for him in terms of winning the championship this year so I think he will be making his move in this race.
Third Bet: £20 on Raikonnen to win the Canadian GP @ 3/1
My apologies for the lack of volume of tips this week but I have simply run out of time to include any more. I also missed the cut off point to bet on the cricket this week which reduced my options. I have tried to find three bets I am fairly confident on so hopefully I can get two of those to come in. Until next week, happy gambling.