It's A Mug's Game #6
by Shane LeRoy(Other)
Posted on June 14, 2007, 12:37 PM
Shane:Welcome to the final edition of Itís a Mugís game for this season. Its been a pleasure to take part in this column and Iíd like to thank Jamie and Paul for all the work they put in to it.
With this being US Open Week, I will be spending the entire £100 budget on the big event.
First up, Iím going to bank on 2 times Champion, Retief Goosen to win the event outright. The tougher the course, the better the Big man from Pietersburg plays. Heíll hit plenty of fairways and plenty of Greens, and as he showed in winning the 2004 Open at Shinnecock hills on ridiculous Greens ; he has a great touch with the flat stick too. Odds of 28/1 with Paddy Power offering 6 places seem too generous to pass up.
First Bet: Ä20 Each Way on Retief Goosen to win US Open at 28/1.
Colin Montgomerie may be in a terrible rut of form these days, but the man who threw the tournament away last season still warrants attention. At 100/1, the 3 times runner-up in the Open is over-priced whatever his form, and Iím taking a punt on him here.
Second Bet: Ä10 Each Way on Monty to win US Open at 100/1 (Boyles, Paddy Power)
Moving to the more fringe markets, there is great value to be had. Jim Furyk is a former Open winner and is second in driving accuracy this year, which is by far the most important statistic for someone attempting to do well this week. 16/1 outright seems a little skinny, but I like Furyk at odds of 7/1 with Betfair to be the top USA golfer not including Woods or Mickleson.
Third Bet: Ä20 on Furyk to be top USA player (W/O Big 2) at 7/1 (Betfair)
Sticking with the top nationality markets, Padraig Harrington is one of those players carrying the tag of Ďbest player never to win a majorí. Iím not sure he can shake that this week , but I think odds of 11/2 for him to be top European warrant attention. Twice a top 5 finisher in US Opens, the Dubliner ought to be in the hunt for another place finish.
Fourth Bet: Ä20 Padraig Harrington to be top European at 11/2 (Paddy Power)
And thatís your lot from me for the series. Hope you enjoyed the column over the last 6 weeks and hopefully you made a few quid following our tips as we have. Take it home Jamie.
Well last week didnít turn out too great for me although it wasnít a total bust as Justine Henin and Rafael Nadal came up trumps by winning their respective finals at the French Open. £35 on that double returned £75.13. Only just under £25 down for the week isnít the end of the world although I was really disappointed that Mexico let me down against Cuba by only scraping to 1-1 at
half-time before winning 2-1 in the end. Kimi Raikonnen also disappointed in the Canadian GP which turned into a bit of an odd race anyway.
Enough reflection now though, so onto this week:
Firstly I am going to look at the final weekend of the Primera Liga. Itís been a thrilling finish to arguably the most exciting league in Europe. Defending champs Barcelona looked to have edged ahead of Real Madrid last week but they conceded a late equaliser to Espanyol at the same time as Real scored one against Zaragoza. That leaves Real Madrid needing to win this week against Mallorca to win the title. I canít seem them slipping up with the resurgent David Beckham in the team so I will take them as my first pick in an accumulator at odds of 1/8.
I also think Barcelona will win against Gimnastic to take Real to the wire at the very least so they will be my 2nd pick at odds of 1/6. Sevilla do have a mathematical chance of snatching the title so they should be finishing strongly and look a safe bet against Villareal at odds of 8/11. My final pick will be for Celta Vigo to triumph at home against Getafe at odds of 2/5 and avoid relegation.
First Bet - £30 accumulator on Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla and Celta Vigo to win.
The Formula One road-show stays in North America this week after the Canadian GP last week with a race in Indianapolis. This race has been quite controversial in the past but there is no reason other than a bit of bickering at McLaren why it should be anything other than the usual fare this time around.
After Lewis Hamilton won last week I do quite fancy him to follow up but by his own admission he has no experience of the track at all (only on a computer game!). Therefore instead I am going to stay faithful one last time to Raikonnen and give him a final chance to redeem himself in my eyes by guiding his Ferrari to victory at odds of 9/2.
Second Bet - £20 @ on Kimi Raikonnen to win the US GP.
I am quite happy to admit that Shane is the master of all things golf betting related around here but with it being a major this week in the shape of the US Open I thought I would have a pop at least getting placed. Adam Scott is a golfer I have admired for quite a while and I think he has enough accuracy in his game to negotiate a very tough course at Oakmount. I will take him each way at odds of 25/1
Third Bet - £10 e/w @ 25/1 on Adam Scott in the US Open.
This week sees the final test against the West Indies. So far this year rain saved them from being beaten at Lords, they got annihilated at Headingly and despite showing some grit for a time at Old Trafford they lost there as well. They showed me enough there and the fact that the weather over here at the minute is decidedly ropey to encourage me to back the draw at odds of 4/11.
Fourth Bet - £30 @ for Fourth Test to be a draw.
Well after having talked it through with my remaining partner in this column we have decided to have a short break after this week. We intend to start up again in a few weeks around about the time the English football season starts. I have really enjoyed these first few weeks and my results so far are as follows
As well as that I have the possibility of returns from an earlier bet on Mexico in the CONCACAF Gold Cup and all my bets this week. I am really chuffed that at the very least I am able to show a small profit and it could yet be even better. Hopefully it proves that I am not a total mug as our title might suggest! But then again I donít think the bookies are running scared just yet.*
Anyway thanks for taking the time to read our efforts and any feedback will be appreciated as always.
Jamie turned his £500 for the first 5 weeks into £629* at the end of the 5 weeks.
Shane turned his £500 for the first 5 weeks into £973.81 at the end of the 5 weeks.
Combined total of £1,602.28 from the £1,000 staked.